The UK petrol and diesel ban that would eliminate solely fossil fuel-powered cars from the UK market has been pushed back to 2035 from the original date of 2030. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made the announcement in a hastily arranged speech, during which he also rowed back several other policies intended to help the UK achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Sunak said: ‘People are already choosing electric vehicles to such an extent that we’re registering a new one every 60 seconds. But I also think that, at least for now, it should be you the consumer that makes that choice, not government forcing you to do it. Because the upfront cost is still high, especially for families struggling with the cost of living.’
Registrations of new electric cars have increased significantly over the last few years, achieving a 20% share of the market in August 2023. However, the growth is driven almost entirely by fleets and businesses: demand for EVs from private buyers is currently very low. EVs account for about 3% of all cars on UK roads.
Recent polling has suggested the 2030 petrol and diesel ban lacks public support, as well. Just 16% of people agreed with the ban in a survey held by The AA in June this year. An online poll held by Fleet News immediately after Sunak’s announcement found that 86% of respondents agreed with the delay.
The new 2035 deadline to end petrol and diesel car sales aligns the UK with the European Union, Australia, Canada and several US states. Though, unlike those territories, the UK currently does not offer any incentives to private EV buyers. Despite this, the government still plans to introduce an ambitious EV sales mandate in January 2024 and will publish the details shortly.
The 2030 date was imposed during the premiership of Boris Johnson without a clear roadmap for how to achieve it. Sunak appeared to fire a shot at his predecessor, saying: ‘The decisions that could bring real change, change that could alter the trajectory of our country, can be so lacking in debate and fundamental scrutiny that we’ve stumbled into a consensus about the future of our country that no one seems to be happy with.’
Why is the change being made?
According to Sunak, the UK is already well on the way to achieving its Net Zero goals. He said: ‘We’ve had the fastest reduction is greenhouse gas emissions in the G7. Down almost 50% since 1990. And when our share of global emissions is less than 1%, how can it be right that British citizens are now being told to sacrifice even more than others? If we continue down this path, we risk losing consent of the British people.’
While Sunak repeatedly asserted that he remains committed to Net Zero, some Westminster watchers have suggested that his softening of environmental policies is being driven by back bench MPs who are against it. There is also resistance to Net Zero among Conservative Party members.
What the automotive industry says
The automotive industry has has given a mixed reaction to Sunak’s announcement. Ford UK Chair, Lisa Brankin, said: ‘This is the biggest industry transformation in over a century and the UK 2030 target is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future. Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.’
Ford has committed £40 billion to electrifying its global model range and will launch several new EVs in the UK by 2025.
Other manufacturer’s have criticised the change including BMW, JLR, Kia and Volkswagen. Industry trade body, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also added its condemnation.
However, Toyota welcomed the move saying: ‘(the) announcement is welcome as it provides clarity industry has been asking for and recognises that all low emission and affordable technologies can have a role to play in a pragmatic vehicle transition. We believe this can also help relevant parties to adapt including consumers, manufacturers, infrastructure and energy providers.”
Toyota has adopted an open-minded approach to the future of car propulsion, spreading is bets across internal combustion, hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell technology.
Will I be able to buy a petrol or diesel car from 2030 to 2035?
In theory, yes. However, Sunak noted: ‘I expect that by 2030, the vast majority of cars sold will be electric. Why? Because the costs are reducing, the range is improving and the charging infrastructure is growing.’
The major car manufacturers had already planned to make an all-EV model range available in the UK by 2030 and will probably continue on that path. But it’s possible Sunak’s policy change could cause a slight rethink. Some may now keep whatever petrol and diesel models they have left on sale in UK after 2030, as they presumably will in EU markets that also have a 2035 cut-off.
There is no word yet on how the change will affect hybrid cars, which were going to be available from 2030 to 2035 under the original plans, so long as they had ‘significant zero emissions capability’.
What will happen after the next election?
A general election is due in the UK by January 2025 at the latest, though it’s widely believed May or possibly October 2024 is a more likely date. Should Labour win, it’s possible it will reinstate the 2030 ban having supported it when it was first implemented. However, it could face difficulty in doing so. It will have less time to meet the deadline, therefore any EV sales targets will have to be much more aggressive. That could necessitate providing significant incentives for private buyers to make the switch, at a time when public finances will already be stretched very thin.
Can I still drive my petrol or diesel car after 2035?
Yes. The ban is on the sale of new vehicles – not the continued use of older ones. This also means that used petrol or diesel cars will still be available. There will not be a requirement for you to scrap or sell your car and move to hybrid or electric cars.
Will petrol and diesel cars be worthless in 10 years?
No. While there will be less demand for new ones as 2035 hoves into view, there will still be a very active market for used cars, especially from those people who are unable to run an electric car on financial or lifestyle grounds. And with the average life of a new car standing at 16 years, if you buy one in 2034, you’ll be possibly running it well into the 2050s.
Is it wise to buy a petrol car now?
If you can’t run an electric car, or simply don’t want to, then buying a petrol car right now poses no problems at all. There are a few factors to consider when future-proofing including, how much you have to spend, where you live, and what charging is in place. A petrol car still also costs less than a diesel, and as discussed above, fuel supplies will need to remain in place for decades to come.
What will happen to classic petrol cars after 2035?
Nothing. They’ll carry on running as they are now. Most classics require E5 fuel to run properly, and supplies of this might tighten in the coming years, but you’ll always be able to buy it, even if the premium rises above where it is now.
Is the UK ready to go electric?
While a lot can happen in the next few years, let’s not underestimate what a challenge this could be. The UK’s charging infrastructure still has hurdles to overcome, even if it has come on leaps and bounds. Hopefully, with continued investment from government, car manufacturers and charging providers, it will continue to expand and improve.
For the majority of users, charging at home overnight will remain the best bet. The expansion of a network of rapid chargers, meanwhile, will accommodate those who don’t have somewhere to charge at home, or those undertaking long journeys. We’re cautiously optimistic that this network will be massively improved by the time the ban comes into force. Even if that is in 2035.
What about commercial vehicles?
It looks as though this ban will extend to vans and pickup trucks weighing under 3.5 tonnes (3.5t or 3,500kg) as well as passenger cars. This will be particularly concerning for businesses.
A viable long-distance zero-emission light commercial vehicle (LCV) has not yet hit the market, with current electric vans suitable only for short journeys with modest payloads.
The ban is now less than a decade off, so we’ll have to live in hope that van manufacturers can provide a solution to this within the timeframe. But when we spoke to senior management working in this area at Ford vans recently, they did not seem to think this was very feasible.
Is hydrogen a viable option?
At the moment? Not remotely. There are only a handful of hydrogen filling stations in the UK and the few vehicles that can use them aren’t on full public sale.
However, several manufacturers are investing heavily in hydrogen cars, and the infrastructure is sure to follow. It could well be a true alternative by 2035 – but we’ve been saying this sort of thing about hydrogen for decades.
Infrastructure – the lack of hydrgen fuelling stations, for example – is a severe obstacle here.
Does this mean I shouldn’t buy a hybrid or PHEV?
Not at all. These cars still make a lot of sense for today’s consumers, and there’s nothing to say you can’t still use it after the ban on new sales comes into force at a date yet to be set.
Hybrids and PHEVs in particular do sidestep a lot of current legislation on emissions, and they’re a good alternative to diesels for those wishing to drop their fuel bills.
